Saturday, May 28, 2016

North Carolina is turning Blue and here is why.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/9/10/1414999/-Why-North-Carolina-is-turning-blue-A-look-at-the-state-s-political-geography?detail=emailclassic&link_id=9&can_id=fe4020b37f6b0a9909f482166cdbbdf9&source=email-this-one-picture-will-really-piss-off-florida-wing-nuts&email_referrer=this-one-picture-will-really-piss-off-florida-wing-nuts&email_subject=this-one-picture-will-really-piss-off-florida-wing-nuts


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North Carolina is an emblem of the New South. In recent decades, significant population growth has dramatically altered the state's demographics. Young professionals, non-native Southerners, Latinos, and other minorities have migrated to the state due to the booming housing market, an enviable higher education system, and the economic draw of Charlotte and the Research Triangle. All these changes have had a profound effect on the state's politics and culture, turning a once reliably red state into a closely-fought swing state.
In general there are eight regions of the state. The Outer Banks, the Southeast, the Northeast, the Sandhills, and the Research Triangle make up Eastern North Carolina, while Charlotte, the Piedmont Triad, and the Mountains make up Western North Carolina. The east and west each have about half of the state's population.
Since the days of the Solid South, east and west have been the primary divide in North Carolina politics, with Democrats dominating in the east and Republicans having a base in the west. However, this disparity is diminishing due to partisan realignment and demographic change. Historically, the east-west divide stretched back generations: While the east was influenced by plantation agriculture and the related legacy of slavery, the soil further west was more suited to small farms and tobacco, resulting in a rural population that was far whiter, especially in Appalachia.
I have calculated election results for every presidential race from 1960 to 2012, as well as all statewide races for the last 20 years. Presidential election results from 19801968, and 1960perfectly reflected the east-west divide, with Republicans winning all three regions in the west and losing all five in the east. In 2012, Obama won the combined regions of Eastern North Carolina by nearly 6 percent, while Romney carried the west by 9 points.
Downballot elections demonstrate an even starker contrast. Republican Gov. Pat McCrory barely carried the east by less than one point during his landslide 2012 win. In the last 20 years there were 80 non-presidential statewide partisan elections, of which Republicans won 28 and Democrats 52. However, only five of them saw Republicans carry the combined east, while just 18 resulted in Democrats winning the west.

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