Posts
Overall, pollsters from both parties think a Trump presidential victory may be unlikely — but not impossible. "I deal in probabilities," says Mark Mellman, CEO of the Mellman Group, a Democratic polling firm. "The probability of him winning the general election is extremely low. But is it zero? No."
The Democratic pollsters I spoke to, like Stan Greenberg and Fernand Amandi, argued that Trump had offended so many different groups that it's really tough to imagine him building a general election coalition. But both qualified those statements to clarify that if something really, really bad happened — an economic collapse or a devastating terrorist attack — Trump's chances could improve.
Meanwhile, Republican pollsters, like John McLaughlin and Ed Goeas, argued that Trump can win because conditions are ripe for any Republican to win. Obama's approval ratings are tepid, and most Americans think the country is on the wrong track. And though most voters view Trump unfavorably and think he's untrustworthy, similar numbers feelthat way about likely Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.
No comments:
Post a Comment